Quarterly Crime Trends Report
2019 Q1 - 2023 Q4
Mindy Duong, Statistical Analyst, Office of Research & Statistic (May 2024)
PDF Version- Quarterly Crime Trends Report [2019 Q1 - 2023 Q4]
INTRODUCTION
The quarterly crime trends report will be released on a regular basis and provide the latest data on serious violent and property crimes in Colorado. The data will cover the time period of the past five years to allow for an assessment of recent crime trends.
Data & Methods: The Colorado Bureau of Investigation (CBI) provides information on crime, arrest, and victimization in Colorado every month (Colorado Crime Statistics). Public data provided through CBI has a 30-day lag after the previous full month, meaning December data will be available the following February. CBI data is dynamic and subject to change as more information becomes available or crime classifications are redefined. This report provides statewide data for serious violent and property crimes from 2019 Quarter 1 (Q1) through 2023 Quarter 4 (Q4), not individual jurisdictions. Quarters are based on the calendar year (January-December). For reference purposes, Appendix Tables 1 & 2 at the end of this report display the violent crime totals by year and quarter from 2019 to 2023.
Violent Crime Rates
Violent crimes include murder/nonnegligent manslaughter, non-consensual sexual assault, robbery, and aggravated assault. There was an 18% decrease in the violent crime rate from 2023 Q3 (138.0) to 2023 Q4 (113.3), which marks the lowest violent crime rate in the last three years (see Figure 1). The average rate of violent crime in the fourth quarter for the past five years is 121.0, putting 2023 Q4 six percent below the average. Historically, the third quarter has the highest rate of violent crime. The lowest violent crime rate was in 2019 Q1 (97.7) which was the only time in the past five years that the rate was below 100 violent crimes per 100,000 population. Regarding the trend and seasonality, the rates typically start low in Q1 and then progressively increase until they peak in Q3. Afterward, they begin dropping in Q4 through the following Q1 and then continue this cycle.
Figure 1. Rates of Violent Crime in Colorado per 100K residents, 2019 Q1-2023 Q4.
Source: Colorado Bureau of Investigation, Colorado Crime Statistics, February 2024.
(Colorado Crime Statistics website: coloradocrimestats.state.co.us/tops)
Murder
There was a 1% decrease in the murder rate from 2023 Q3 (1.5) to 2023 Q4 (1.4) (see Figure 2). The average rate of murders in the fourth quarter for the past five years is 1.5, putting 2023 Q4 seven percent below the average. Historically, the second half of the year has had more murders than the first half. In 2021 and 2022, the highest rate of murders was in the fourth quarter. The lowest murder rate was in 2019 Q1 (0.7) which was the only time the rate was below 1.0.
Figure 2. Rates of Murder in Colorado per 100K residents, 2019 Q1-2023 Q4.
Source: Colorado Bureau of Investigation, Colorado Crime Statistics, February 2024.
Non-Consensual Sex Offenses
There was a 24% decrease in non-consensual sex offense rates from 2023 Q3 (25.7) to 2023 Q4 (19.6), which marks the lowest rate in the last five years (see Figure 3). The average rate of non-consensual sex offenses in the fourth quarter for the past five years is 26.2, putting 2023 Q4 twenty-five percent below the average. Historically, the third quarter has the highest rate of non-consensual sex offenses. The lowest non-consensual sex offense rate was in 2023 Q4 (19.6) which was the only time the rate was below 20 in the past five years.
Figure 3. Rates of Non-Consensual Sex Offenses in Colorado per 100K residents, 2019 Q1-2023 Q4.
Source: Colorado Bureau of Investigation, Colorado Crime Statistics, February 2024.
Robbery
There was a 10% decrease in robbery rates between 2023 Q3 (16.8) to 2023 Q4 (15.1), which marks the lowest rate in the last three years (see Figure 4). The average rate of robberies in the fourth quarter for the past five years is 17.7, putting 2023 Q4 fifteen percent below the average. Historically, the third quarter has the highest rate of robberies. The lowest robbery rate was in 2019 Q1 (14.5).
Figure 4. Rates of Robbery in Colorado per 100K residents, 2019 Q1-2023 Q4.
Source: Colorado Bureau of Investigation, Colorado Crime Statistics, February 2024.
Aggravated Assault
There was an 18% decrease in aggravated assault rates from 2023 Q3 (94.1) to 2023 Q4 (77.1), which marks the lowest rate in the last two-and-one-half years (see Figure 5). The average rate of aggravated assault in the fourth quarter for the past five years is 75.6, putting 2023 Q4 two percent above the average. Historically, the third quarter of the year has the highest rates of aggravated assault while the first quarter has the lowest rates. The lowest aggravated assault rate was in 2019 Q1 (51.6) which was the only time the rate was below 55.
Figure 5. Rates of Aggravated Assault in Colorado per 100K residents, 2019 Q1-2023 Q4.
Source: Colorado Bureau of Investigation, Colorado Crime Statistics, February 2024.
Property Crime Rates
Property crime includes burglary, larceny/theft, and motor vehicle theft. There was a 9% decrease in the property crime rate from 2023 Q3 (845.2) to 2023 Q4 (772.0), which marks the lowest property crime rate in the last three-and-one-half years (see Figure 6). The average rate of property crimes in the fourth quarter for the past five years is 890.1, putting 2023 Q4 thirteen percent below the average. Property crime rates have not surpassed 1,000 since 2021 Q1 (1,232.5) which had the highest rate in the past five years. Property crime rates have had minor fluctuations but have been on a steady decline since 2023 Q1.
Figure 6. Rates of Property Crime in Colorado per 100K residents, 2019 Q1-2023 Q4.
Source: Colorado Bureau of Investigation, Colorado Crime Statistics, February 2024.
Burglary
There was a 4% decrease in the burglary rate from 2023 Q3 (81.5) to 2023 Q4 (78.0), which nearly marks the lowest robbery rate in the last five years, second to only the rate in 2019 Q1 (75.9) (see Figure 7). The average rate of burglaries in the fourth quarter for the past five years is 93.2, putting 2023 Q4 sixteen percent below the average. Burglary rates have had minor fluctuations in the past five years, with the highest rate in 2020 Q4 (106.8).
Figure 7. Rates of Burglary in Colorado per 100K residents, 2019 Q1-2023 Q4.
Source: Colorado Bureau of Investigation, Colorado Crime Statistics, February 2024.
Larceny
There was an 8% decrease in the larceny rate from 2023 Q3 (482.7) to 2023 Q4 (441.8), which nearly marks the lowest larceny rate in the last five years, second to only 2019 Q1 (441.5) (see Figure 8). The average rate of larcenies in the fourth quarter for the past five years is 499.5, putting 2023 Q4 twelve percent below the average. Larceny rates have had minor fluctuations but have been steadily declining since 2023 Q1.
Figure 8. Rates of Larceny in Colorado per 100K residents, 2019 Q1-2023 Q4.
Source: Colorado Bureau of Investigation, Colorado Crime Statistics, February 2024.
Motor Vehicle Theft
There was a 5% decrease in the motor vehicle theft rate from 2023 Q3 (157.8) to 2023 Q4 (149.3), which marks the lowest motor vehicle theft rate in the last two-and-one-half years (see Figure 9). The average rate of motor vehicle thefts in the fourth quarter for the past five years is 159.1, putting 2023 Q4 six percent below the average. Motor vehicle theft rates trended upward from 2020 Q1 through 2022 Q1 but have been on a steady downward trend since 2022 Q1, with 2023 Q4 having the lowest rate since 2020 Q2 (124.7).
Figure 9. Rates of Motor Vehicle Theft in Colorado per 100K residents, 2019 Q1-2023 Q4.
Source: Colorado Bureau of Investigation, Colorado Crime Statistics, February 2024.
Arson
There was a 15% increase in the arson rate from 2023 Q3 (4.6) to 2023 Q4 (5.3), which marks the highest arson rate in 2023 (see Figure 10). The average rate of arson in the fourth quarter for the past five years is 5.5, putting 2023 Q4 four percent below the average. Arson rates have fluctuated quite a bit over the past five years but have not exceeded 6.0 since 2022 Q3. The rate in the first quarter has historically been lower than the fourth quarter, suggesting that 2024 Q1 may show a decrease.
Figure 10. Rates of Arson in Colorado per 100K residents, 2019 Q1-2023 Q4.
Source: Colorado Bureau of Investigation, Colorado Crime Statistics, February 2024.
Appendix
Violent Crime Totals
Table 1. Violent crime offenses, 2019 Q1 - 2023 Q4.
| Year and Quarter | Violent Crime | Violent Crime % Change* | Murder | Non-consensual Sex Offenses | Robbery | Aggravated Assault |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 Q1 | 5,625 | - | 38 | 1,780 | 835 | 2,972 |
| 2019 Q2 | 6,400 | 13.8% | 66 | 1,757 | 936 | 3,641 |
| 2019 Q3 | 7,091 | 10.8% | 64 | 1,835 | 1,024 | 4,168 |
| 2019 Q4 | 6,128 | -13.6% | 63 | 1,677 | 966 | 3,422 |
| 2020 Q1 | 5,985 | -2.3% | 62 | 1,804 | 883 | 3,236 |
| 2020 Q2 | 6,697 | 11.9% | 83 | 1,387 | 861 | 4,366 |
| 2020 Q3 | 8,179 | 22.1% | 103 | 1,712 | 1,158 | 5,206 |
| 2020 Q4 | 6,915 | -15.5% | 65 | 1,547 | 1,119 | 4,184 |
| 2021 Q1 | 6,963 | 0.7% | 88 | 1,679 | 1,065 | 4,131 |
| 2021 Q2 | 7,808 | 12.1% | 83 | 1,849 | 993 | 4,883 |
| 2021 Q3 | 8,571 | 9.8% | 85 | 1,920 | 1,108 | 5,458 |
| 2021 Q4 | 7,839 | -8.5% | 112 | 1,819 | 1,189 | 4,719 |
| 2022 Q1 | 7,484 | -4.5% | 78 | 1,652 | 1,166 | 4,588 |
| 2022 Q2 | 8,443 | 12.8% | 95 | 1,798 | 1,091 | 5,459 |
| 2022 Q3 | 8,816 | 4.4% | 92 | 1,726 | 1,206 | 5,792 |
| 2022 Q4 | 7,681 | -12.9% | 122 | 1,416 | 980 | 5,163 |
| 2023 Q1 | 7,245 | -5.7% | 69 | 1,626 | 940 | 4,610 |
| 2023 Q2 | 7,691 | 6.2% | 71 | 1,381 | 942 | 5,297 |
| 2023 Q3 | 8,058 | 4.8% | 85 | 1,499 | 980 | 5,494 |
| 2023 Q4 | 6,615 | -17.9% | 84 | 1,145 | 881 | 4,505 |
| AVG for Q4 | 7,036 | - | 89.2 | 1,521 | 1,027 | 4,399 |
* Percent change is based on one quarter to the next.
Source: Colorado Bureau of Investigation, Colorado Crime Statistics, February 2024.
Property Crime Totals
Table 2. Property crime offenses, 2019 Q1 - 2023 Q4.
| Year and Quarter | Property Crime | Property Crime % Change* | Burglary | Larceny | Motor Vehicle Theft | Arson |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 Q1 | 42,409 | - | 4,369 | 25,424 | 5,036 | 183 |
| 2019 Q2 | 45,740 | 7.9% | 4,967 | 27,815 | 5,713 | 222 |
| 2019 Q3 | 49,062 | 7.3% | 5,643 | 30,042 | 5,866 | 273 |
| 2019 Q4 | 46,361 | -5.5% | 4,953 | 28,409 | 5,836 | 219 |
| 2020 Q1 | 43,997 | -5.1% | 5,009 | 26,316 | 5,334 | 218 |
| 2020 Q2 | 47,350 | 7.6% | 5,827 | 27,303 | 7,241 | 357 |
| 2020 Q3 | 54,860 | 15.9% | 6,107 | 31,240 | 8,983 | 441 |
| 2020 Q4 | 60,992 | 11.2% | 6,200 | 31,233 | 10,106 | 337 |
| 2021 Q1 | 71,634 | 17.4% | 5,944 | 29,626 | 10,284 | 268 |
| 2021 Q2 | 54,334 | -24.2% | 5,765 | 30,172 | 10,177 | 331 |
| 2021 Q3 | 54,663 | 0.6% | 5,924 | 31,101 | 10,776 | 344 |
| 2021 Q4 | 55,427 | 1.4% | 5,801 | 31,577 | 11,057 | 418 |
| 2022 Q1 | 56,042 | 1.1% | 5,331 | 30,197 | 12,839 | 363 |
| 2022 Q2 | 55,898 | -0.3% | 5,633 | 31,291 | 11,756 | 383 |
| 2022 Q3 | 56,708 | 1.4% | 6,071 | 31,550 | 11,898 | 333 |
| 2022 Q4 | 50,775 | -10.5% | 5,586 | 28,107 | 10,559 | 321 |
| 2023 Q1 | 51,556 | 1.5% | 5,266 | 28,729 | 10,518 | 305 |
| 2023 Q2 | 51,119 | -0.8% | 5,394 | 28,456 | 9,722 | 293 |
| 2023 Q3 | 49,357 | -3.4% | 4,758 | 28,191 | 9,214 | 270 |
| 2023 Q4 | 45,084 | -8.7% | 4,556 | 25,802 | 8,721 | 310 |
| AVG for Q4 | 51,728 | - | 5,419 | 29,026 | 9,256 | 321 |
* Percent change is based on one quarter to the next.
Source: Colorado Bureau of Investigation, Colorado Crime Statistics, February 2024.
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