Quarterly Crime Trends Report: 2019-Q1 to 2024-Q1
Mindy Duong, Statistical Analyst, Office of Research & Statistic (July 2024)
PDF Version: Quarterly Crime Trends Report [2019 Q1 - 2024 Q1]
INTRODUCTION
The quarterly crime trends report will be released on a regular basis and provide the latest data on serious violent and property crimes in Colorado. The data will cover the time period of the past five years to allow for an assessment of recent crime trends.
Data & Methods: The Colorado Bureau of Investigation (CBI) provides information on crime, arrest, and victimization in Colorado every month (Colorado Crime Statistics). Public data provided through CBI has a 30-day lag after the previous full month, meaning December data will be available the following February. CBI data is dynamic and subject to change as more information becomes available or crime classifications are redefined. This report provides statewide data for serious violent and property crimes from 2019 Quarter 1 (Q1) through 2024 Quarter 1 (Q1), not individual jurisdictions. Quarters are based on the calendar year (January-December).
Violent Crime Rates
Violent crimes include murder/nonnegligent manslaughter, non-consensual sexual assault, robbery, and aggravated assault. There was a 9% decrease in the violent crime rate from 2023 Q4 (116.8) to 2024 Q1 (106.7), which marks the lowest violent crime rate in the last three years. The average rate of violent crime in the first quarter for the past five years (2020 Q1-2024 Q1) is 116.1, putting 2024 Q1 nine percent below the average. Historically, the third quarter has the highest rate of violent crime. The violent crime rate has not fallen below 100 since 2019 Q1. Regarding the trend and seasonality, the rates typically start low in Q1 and then progressively increase until they peak in Q3. Afterward, they begin dropping in Q4 through the following Q1 and then continue this cycle. Please see Figure 1 for more details.
Figure 1. Rates of Violent Crime in Colorado per 100K residents, 2019 Q1-2024 Q1.
Source: Colorado Bureau of Investigation, Colorado Crime Statistics, May 2024.
(Colorado Crime Statistics website: coloradocrimestats.state.co.us/tops)
Murder
There was a 1% decrease in the murder rate from 2023 Q4 (1.4) to 2024 Q1 (1.3). The average rate of murders in the first quarter for the past five years (2020 Q1-2024 Q1) is 1.3, putting 2024 Q1 right at the average. Historically, the second half of the year has had more murders than the first half. In 2021 and 2022, the highest rate of murders was in the fourth quarter. The lowest murder rate was in 2019 Q1 (0.7) which was the only time the rate has been below 1.0 in the past five years.
Figure 2. Rates of Murder in Colorado per 100K residents, 2019 Q1-2024 Q1.
Source: Colorado Bureau of Investigation, Colorado Crime Statistics, May 2024.
Non-Consensual Sex Offenses
There was a 2% decrease in non-consensual sex offense rates from 2023 Q4 (20.7) to 2024 Q1 (20.2), which marks the lowest rate in the last five years. The average rate of non-consensual sex offenses in the first quarter for the past five years (2020 Q1-2024 Q1) is 27.3, putting 2024 Q1 twenty-six percent below the average. Historically, the third quarter has the highest rate of non-consensual sex offenses. The lowest non- consensual sex offense rate in the past five years was in 2024 Q1 (20.2).
Figure 3. Rates of Non-Consensual Sex Offenses in Colorado per 100K residents, 2019 Q1-2024 Q1.
Source: Colorado Bureau of Investigation, Colorado Crime Statistics, May 2024.
Robbery
There was a 10% decrease in robbery rates between 2023 Q4 (15.4) to 2024 Q1 (14.1), which marks the lowest rate in the last five years. The average rate of robberies in the first quarter for the past five years (2020 Q1-2024 Q1) is 16.7, putting 2024 Q1 sixteen percent below the average. Historically, the third quarter has the highest rate of robberies. The 2024 Q1 rate of 14.1 marks the lowest robbery rate since 2019.
Figure 4. Rates of Robbery in Colorado per 100K residents, 2019 Q1-2024 Q1.
Source: Colorado Bureau of Investigation, Colorado Crime Statistics, May 2024.
Aggravated Assault
There was an 18% decrease in aggravated assault rates from 2023 Q4 (79.4) to 2024 Q1 (71.1), which marks the lowest rate in the last three years. The average rate of aggravated assault in the first quarter for the past five years (2020 Q1-2024 Q1) is 70.8, putting 2024 Q1 one percent above the average. Historically, the third quarter of the year has the highest rates of aggravated assault while the first quarter has the lowest rates. The lowest aggravated assault rate was in 2019 Q1 (51.6) which was the only time the rate was below 55.
Figure 5. Rates of Aggravated Assault in Colorado per 100K residents, 2019 Q1-2024 Q1.
Source: Colorado Bureau of Investigation, Colorado Crime Statistics, May 2024.
Property Crime Rates
Property crime includes burglary, larceny/theft, motor vehicle theft, and arson. There was a 16% decrease in the property crime rate from 2023 Q4 (701.9) to 2024 Q1 (589.4), which marks the lowest property crime rate in the last five years. The average rate of property crimes in the first quarter for the past five years (2020 Q1-2024 Q1) is 722.4, putting 2024 Q1 eighteen percent below the average. Property crime rates have not surpassed 850 since 2022 Q3 (854.2) which had the highest rate in the past five years. Property crime rates have been on a steady decline since 2022 Q4.
Figure 6. Rates of Property Crime in Colorado per 100K residents, 2019 Q1-2024 Q1.
Source: Colorado Bureau of Investigation, Colorado Crime Statistics, June 2024.
Burglary
There was a 12% decrease in the burglary rate from 2023 Q4 (81.0) to 2024 Q1 (71.2), which marks the lowest robbery rate in the last five years. The average rate of burglaries in the first quarter for the past five years (2020 Q1-2024 Q1) is 88.2, putting 2024 Q1 nineteen percent below the average. Burglary rates have had relatively minor fluctuations in the past five years, with the highest rate in 2020 Q4 (106.7). Burglary rates have been on a downward trend for the past four quarters.
Figure 7. Rates of Burglary in Colorado per 100K residents, 2019 Q1-2024 Q1.
Source: Colorado Bureau of Investigation, Colorado Crime Statistics, June 2024.
Larceny
There was a 14% decrease in the larceny rate from 2023 Q4 (461.8) to 2024 Q1 (392.3), which marks the lowest larceny rate in the last five years. The average rate of larcenies in the first quarter for the past five years (2020 Q1-2024 Q1) is 471.9, putting 2024 Q1 fifteen percent below the average. Larceny rates have had minor fluctuations over the past two years but have declined over the past two quarters.
Figure 8. Rates of Larceny in Colorado per 100K residents, 2019 Q1-2024 Q1.
Source: Colorado Bureau of Investigation, Colorado Crime Statistics, June 2024.
Motor Vehicle Theft
There was a 21% decrease in the motor vehicle theft rate from 2023 Q4 (153.5) to 2024 Q1 (121.6), which marks the lowest motor vehicle theft rate in the last three years. The average rate of motor vehicle thefts in the first quarter for the past five years (2020 Q1-2024 Q1) is 157.6, putting 2024 Q1 twenty-three percent below the average. Motor vehicle theft rates trended upward from 2020 Q1 through 2022 Q1 but have been on a generally downward trend since 2022 Q1.
Figure 9. Rates of Motor Vehicle Theft in Colorado per 100K residents, 2019 Q1-2024 Q1.
Source: Colorado Bureau of Investigation, Colorado Crime Statistics, June 2024.
Arson
There was a 23% decrease in the arson rate from 2023 Q4 (5.6) to 2024 Q1 (4.3), which marks the lowest arson rate in the past four years. The average rate of arson in the first quarter for the past five years (2020 Q1-2024 Q1) is 4.8, putting 2024 Q1 ten percent below the average. Arson rates have fluctuated quite a bit over the past five years but have not exceeded 6.0 since 2022 Q3. The rate in the first quarter has historically been lower than the fourth quarter, which aligns with the current 2024 Q1 rate.
Figure 10. Rates of Arson in Colorado per 100K residents, 2019 Q1-2024 Q1.
Source: Colorado Bureau of Investigation, Colorado Crime Statistics, June 2024.
Appendix
Violent Crime Totals
Table 1. Violent crime offenses, 2019 Q1-2024 Q1.
| Year and Quarter | Violent Crime | Violent Crime % Change* | Murder | Non-consensual Sex Offenses | Robbery | Aggravated Assault |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 Q1 | 5,625 | - | 38 | 1,780 | 835 | 2,972 |
| 2019 Q2 | 6,400 | 13.8% | 66 | 1,757 | 936 | 3,641 |
| 2019 Q3 | 7,091 | 10.8% | 64 | 1,835 | 1,024 | 4,168 |
| 2019 Q4 | 6,128 | -13.6% | 63 | 1,677 | 966 | 3,422 |
| 2020 Q1 | 5,985 | -2.3% | 62 | 1,804 | 883 | 3,236 |
| 2020 Q2 | 6,697 | 11.9% | 83 | 1,387 | 861 | 4,366 |
| 2020 Q3 | 8,179 | 22.1% | 103 | 1,712 | 1,158 | 5,206 |
| 2020 Q4 | 6,915 | -15.5% | 65 | 1,547 | 1,119 | 4,184 |
| 2021 Q1 | 6,960 | 0.7% | 87 | 1,689 | 1,063 | 4,121 |
| 2021 Q2 | 7,794 | 12.0% | 80 | 1,853 | 992 | 4,869 |
| 2021 Q3 | 8,565 | 9.9% | 84 | 1,918 | 1,107 | 5,456 |
| 2021 Q4 | 7,795 | -9.0% | 107 | 1,821 | 1,183 | 4,684 |
| 2022 Q1 | 7,485 | -4.0% | 75 | 1,663 | 1,166 | 4,581 |
| 2022 Q2 | 8,429 | 12.6% | 95 | 1,799 | 1,084 | 5,451 |
| 2022 Q3 | 8,785 | 4.2% | 93 | 1,729 | 1,204 | 5,759 |
| 2022 Q4 | 7,679 | -12.6% | 119 | 1,419 | 974 | 5,167 |
| 2023 Q1 | 7,304 | -4.9% | 70 | 1,652 | 943 | 4,639 |
| 2023 Q2 | 7,835 | 7.3% | 71 | 1,414 | 958 | 5,392 |
| 2023 Q3 | 8,417 | 7.4% | 89 | 1,581 | 1,008 | 5,739 |
| 2023 Q4 | 6,942 | -17.5% | 84 | 1,228 | 914 | 4,716 |
| 2024 Q1 | 6,340 | -8.7% | 74 | 1,202 | 838 | 4,226 |
| AVG for Q1^ | 6,815 | - | 74 | 1,602 | 979 | 4,161 |
* Percent change is based on one quarter to the next.
^ The five-year “AVG for Q1” does not include 2019.
Source: Colorado Bureau of Investigation, Colorado Crime Statistics, May 2024.
Property Crime Totals
Table 2. Property crime offenses, 2019 Q1-2024 Q1.
| Year and Quarter | Property Crime | Property Crime % Change* | Burglary | Larceny | Motor Vehicle Theft | Arson |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 Q1 | 34,954 | - | 4,360 | 25,383 | 5,028 | 183 |
| 2019 Q2 | 38,651 | 10.6% | 4,964 | 27,759 | 5,706 | 222 |
| 2019 Q3 | 41,760 | 8.0% | 5,637 | 29,997 | 5,853 | 273 |
| 2019 Q4 | 39,317 | -5.9% | 4,946 | 28,341 | 5,811 | 219 |
| 2020 Q1 | 36,739 | -6.6% | 4,994 | 26,227 | 5,300 | 218 |
| 2020 Q2 | 40,643 | 10.6% | 5,823 | 27,252 | 7,211 | 357 |
| 2020 Q3 | 46,663 | 14.8% | 6,101 | 31,182 | 8,940 | 440 |
| 2020 Q4 | 47,770 | 2.4% | 6,195 | 31,180 | 10,059 | 336 |
| 2021 Q1 | 46,124 | -3.4% | 5,944 | 29,631 | 10,280 | 269 |
| 2021 Q2 | 46,447 | 0.7% | 5,768 | 30,173 | 10,175 | 331 |
| 2021 Q3 | 48,146 | 3.7% | 5,925 | 31,106 | 10,772 | 343 |
| 2021 Q4 | 48,865 | 1.5% | 5,802 | 31,588 | 11,057 | 418 |
| 2022 Q1 | 48,747 | -0.2% | 5,338 | 30,208 | 12,838 | 363 |
| 2022 Q2 | 49,083 | 0.7% | 5,639 | 31,308 | 11,754 | 382 |
| 2022 Q3 | 49,882 | 1.6% | 6,074 | 31,576 | 11,898 | 334 |
| 2022 Q4 | 44,733 | -10.3% | 5,622 | 28,209 | 10,581 | 321 |
| 2023 Q1 | 45,274 | 1.2% | 5,347 | 29,024 | 10,593 | 310 |
| 2023 Q2 | 44,859 | -0.9% | 5,522 | 29,116 | 9,922 | 299 |
| 2023 Q3 | 44,384 | -1.1% | 4,966 | 29,460 | 9,667 | 291 |
| 2023 Q4 | 41,711 | -6.0% | 4,815 | 27,442 | 9,120 | 334 |
| 2024 Q1 | 35,026 | -16.0% | 4,228 | 23,313 | 7,227 | 258 |
| AVG for Q1^ | 42,382 | - | 5,170 | 27,681 | 9,248 | 284 |
* Percent change is based on one quarter to the next.
^ The five-year “AVG for Q1” does not include 2019.
Source: Colorado Bureau of Investigation, Colorado Crime Statistics, May 2024.
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